Are the days of cheap food over?

In July of this year food price inflation reached its highest level since January 2024 and the Institute of Grocery Distribution (IGD) now expect food inflation to reach 5.1% in late summer. It is reported that food prices are the top concern amongst British households, overtaking energy. Is this just a blip or are the days of cheap food over?

Recent rises in food prices are due to a number of factors:

• Ongoing drought and hot weather reducing crop yields and reducing forage available for cattle and sheep (across the UK and Europe)

• Global climate change

• Global conflict and uncertainties around the availability of imported food

• More farmers exiting farming

• Increasing costs on farms including higher National Insurance levels

• An increasing regulatory burden on farms

• Withdrawal of government support for farmers transitioning to more sustainable farming practices and delivering environmental safeguards

• Concern amongst farmers about the impact of new inheritance Tax (IHT) rules

To be frank I can't see any of these challenges to secure food supplies and high prices coming to an end any time soon. Even if we get significant rain, the impact of drought on crops and livestock production is already stamped on our food for the next six months or more. For example, many dairy, beef and sheep farmers, will struggle to accumulate sufficient forage stock for the coming winter whatever the weather does for the remainder of the summer.

All of the above have come together to create the perfect storm for our food system and, yes, I do think the days of cheap food are over. For too long we have played with our food, wasted it, undervalued it and been dismissive of the concerns of the people who are at the heart of our food system (our farmers).

The price we pay for food is fundamentally determined by two things - supply and demand. In recent years developing countries have been growing much more rapidly than the industrial countries. This growth convergence has potentially very important implications for world food demand and for world agriculture because of the increase in demand for agricultural resources as diets shift away from starchy staples and towards animal-based products and fruits and vegetables.

It is projected that this income convergence that is widely used in economic projections, will increase world food demand by about a third, by 2050. Resulting in continuing upward pressure on world food prices, due to demand outstripping supply.

Big price increases will be of concern to consumers everywhere, but the real threat lies in the risk to our food security. Paying more for food is worrying but food is in scarce supply it causes real panic. To maintain domestic food supplies farming has to be profitable for our farmers - profitability is a key pillar of sustainability.

Do you really want to put the future of your food supply entirely in the hand of foreign producers and governments, who are all experiencing the same challenges as the UK? Do you really think those overseas will worry about exporting to us when demand grows on their own doorstep and people are prepared to pay more for their food? Well, I suppose some might, if you are prepared to outbid their domestic customers, but what price are you prepared to pay?

I say to people who complain about rising food prices and who see little threat of widespread hunger in the UK don't wait until your fridge is empty to decide it's time to support UK farmers.

Supporting British farmers isn't about giving them handouts, it's about buying good quality British food at a fair price. It's about making the time to really understand the work farmers do and the challenges they face. If it does mean paying a little extra in some instances, consider the extra pound as an insurance premium you are paying to safeguard food future food supplies. And when I say "future food supplies" I don't mean 50 years from now - I mean in a few years from now. That's how near the threat of a mass exodus of farmers is and a time when we see thousands more acres of farmland covered in building development, solar panels and vast areas rewilded and rendered totally unproductive.

Produce & Provide exists to raise awareness of the growing opportunities to buy food direct from local farmers. Visiting a farm or a farmers market provides a unique opportunity to learn more about how your food is produced and make more informed choices for your own health, the future of the planet and animal welfare. Be assured your effort will be rewarded with some great tasting food.

I don't care whether you spend £100 or £2 buying food direct from a farmer. What I care about is the fact that you make a connection with the people who feed you. Yes, remember that - farmers are the people who feed us and I cannot think of any more important role in our society than the one our farmers play. The government it seems is doing everything possible to undermine our food security right now, but by connecting farmers and consumers we can build the kind of food system we need.

So, don't wait until your fridge is empty, take action today to safeguard British food security for yourself and future generations. Find farmers near you selling direct from their farms on website map vis this link www.produceandprovide.co.uk